Permissionless IV Recap: Bitcoin Treasuries, Stablecoin Legislation, and Big Tech's Crypto Ambitions

The Permissionless IV conference in Brooklyn brought together some of the most influential voices in the crypto media landscape for a wide-ranging discussion on the current state of digital assets. In a special panel featuring hosts from across the Blockworks podcast network, Felix from Forward Guidance, Pete Rizzo from Supply Shock, and research analysts Danny and Boccaccio joined forces to dissect the major themes emerging from the conference and the broader cryptocurrency market.

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What emerged was a nuanced conversation touching on everything from the explosive growth of Bitcoin treasury acquisition vehicles to the existential questions facing altcoin markets, the impending flood of stablecoin legislation, and whether traditional tech giants entering the crypto space represents a genuine paradigm shift or merely the latest iteration of corporate marketing.

The Token Acquisition Company Revolution

The proliferation of Bitcoin treasury companies has become one of the defining narratives of the current crypto cycle. Felix opened the discussion by observing a pattern that has repeated throughout crypto's history: "It always feels like every crypto cycle is we take one new thing and then suddenly you get a proliferation and you get 30 of them in quick order, and we always love to test things to their logical extremes."

This observation perfectly captures the current moment for treasury acquisition vehicles, which began with Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy and have now spawned dozens of imitators across global markets. Felix expressed cautious optimism about the meta, noting that "there's a lot of unlocking new asset classes in terms of being able to have access to these debt markets. That's a whole different investor base than equity."

The innovation in debt issuance vehicles has been particularly noteworthy. MicroStrategy pioneered the convertible debt approach to Bitcoin acquisition, and the market has since seen a proliferation of increasingly creative financial instruments designed to maximize Bitcoin accumulation. The panelists noted that "every other crypto token is going to have their own acquisition company" going forward, pointing to examples like ESBET and other emerging players in the space.

Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Just Getting Started

When asked whether the token acquisition company trend has peaked, the panelists offered a resounding response: this phenomenon is in its earliest stages and will likely grow a hundred times larger. The reasoning centers on the existence of market inefficiencies across global capital markets that these vehicles are uniquely positioned to exploit.

Pete Rizzo offered a compelling example with Metaplanet, the Japanese company executing a strategy similar to MicroStrategy. "Why is Metaplanet the best performing stock in Japan?" Rizzo asked. "Weekend ETFs don't exist in Japan. And the tax, if you own Bitcoin and you sell it in self custody is something like 50% compared to 10% with the stock." These natural market asymmetries create enormous opportunities for entrepreneurs willing to start companies that acquire Bitcoin through traditional equity and debt markets.

The implications extend far beyond developed markets. As Rizzo explained, "If the prize for closing one of these asymmetries is that you end up owning 20,000 Bitcoin, you better bet that everybody in every capital market in the world is going to be racing." This includes capital markets in Africa, Europe, Indonesia, and essentially anywhere there exists an opportunity to start a company and acquire significant Bitcoin holdings through traditional financial instruments.

Bitcoin Treasuries as the New Token Model

One of the most provocative arguments to emerge from the panel was Rizzo's assertion that Bitcoin treasury companies represent the new paradigm for tokens in the digital asset ecosystem. "The treasury companies are the new tokens," he explained, "because they give you everything that you get with a token. You get a logo, you get a symbol, and you get some beta on Bitcoin."

The critical advantage these companies possess over traditional tokens, however, is distribution. Rather than needing to acquire users through marketing, airdrops, or other costly customer acquisition strategies, these treasury companies can leverage the existing distribution networks of traditional financial markets. "They don't need to go out and get users," Rizzo noted. "The NYSE, NASDAQ, they have hundreds of millions of users."

This insight suggests a fundamental shift in how value will accrue in the crypto ecosystem going forward. If investors can gain Bitcoin exposure through traditional equity markets while enjoying the regulatory clarity and familiar interfaces of conventional brokerages, the value proposition of many altcoin tokens becomes significantly diminished.

The Disappearance of the Free Lunch

A sobering theme running throughout the discussion was the acknowledgment that the era of easy returns in cryptocurrency markets has ended. Danny and Boccaccio, who cover the DeFi and altcoin markets for Blockworks Research, observed that many fund managers and allocators have grown "bored" with the current market structure.

Boccaccio made a particularly insightful observation about the previous market regime: "Back in the day, you could just wait till a new L1 came out and then buy like the top DEX, buy the native token, stake it, whatever. And that would book a pretty good return for you. And it seems like that meta has gone away." This shift represents a fundamental change in how crypto markets operate and where alpha can be generated.

The panelists attributed this change to several factors, including the maturation of the market, increased competition, and perhaps most importantly, the end of the unique monetary conditions that characterized previous cycles. Felix offered a provocative interpretation: what many perceived as crypto market dynamics was actually a function of "a very idiosyncratic period of time where a lot of 20-something males were sent checks by the government and didn't really know what to do with it. And so they went and bought like Curve or whatever."

DeFi's Maturation and the Search for Sustainable Value

Despite the challenges facing altcoin markets, the panelists identified pockets of genuine value creation within DeFi. Danny noted that "DeFi has become more serious" and pointed to protocols like Aave, Syrup, and Maple as examples of projects that have developed sustainable business models.

The distinction being drawn is between protocols that generate real revenues and can provide returns to token holders versus those that relied primarily on speculative interest and token emissions. "People want all day and syrup, maple," Danny explained. "The Aaves, the syrups, things that they have a, you know, a business that's kind of formed and they earn revenues and they're giving some of that, you know, guaranteed to the token holders."

This maturation mirrors the evolution of equity markets, where investors eventually gravitate toward companies with sustainable business models rather than purely speculative plays. The challenge for many crypto projects is that their token economics were designed for a different era and may not translate well into a more discerning market environment.

The Unsolved Question of Layer 1 Value Accrual

One of the most contentious topics discussed was where value ultimately accrues in the blockchain ecosystem. Rizzo posed a direct challenge: "Where does the value accrual happen on the chain? And you're fighting because this application is on its own chain."

The question becomes increasingly relevant as stablecoin issuance proliferates and traditional financial institutions begin building their own blockchain infrastructure. Rizzo pointed out that "next year, every bank is going to have their own stablecoin. Every large company, they're probably going to compete on the level of having their own rails."

Boccaccio acknowledged the difficulty of answering this question definitively: "I don't think anybody really knows right now. Part of the reason why we've had this debate for a year and a half about REV is because nobody really knows how to value an L1 very, very well."

The tension between cash flow-based valuation and the speculative nature of crypto assets remains unresolved. While some argue for a pure revenue-based approach to valuation, others contend that these are still early-stage startups where traditional metrics may not capture the full picture. The Solana ecosystem has positioned itself to benefit from a high-volume, low-fee transaction model, with some advocates arguing that billions of transactions at low fees can generate meaningful value for validators and token holders.

Stablecoins and the Deficit Financing Imperative

Felix, who covers macroeconomic trends, offered a compelling analysis connecting stablecoin legislation to the broader fiscal challenges facing the United States. With the country running a 7% of GDP fiscal deficit and potentially accelerating to 8% if the "big beautiful bill" passes, the question of who will buy Treasury debt has become increasingly urgent.

"There's a very logical reasoning behind why we're seeing such a push for the Genius Act right now," Felix explained. "Because that is a huge unlock for US Treasury stables coming forth." Stablecoins backed by Treasury bills represent a potential demand source for government debt, creating alignment between crypto industry interests and government financing needs.

The international dimension of this dynamic is often overlooked. Felix noted that many people assume other developed countries are running similarly large deficits, but Canada, for example, has maintained only a 2% of GDP fiscal deficit for many years. However, with NATO discussions around increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP, fiscal deficits are set to increase globally, potentially creating new demand for stablecoin-based savings products across multiple jurisdictions.

Circle's Extraordinary Business Model

The discussion of stablecoin economics led to a detailed analysis of Circle's business model and the implications of the Genius Act for stablecoin issuers. Felix described stablecoins as "basically money market funds" that own Treasury bills but have a crucial distinction: "What's unique is that they don't pass on anything. They're not allowed to, especially if the Genius Act passes."

This regulatory structure creates an "absolutely absurd business model" with 100% net interest margin. While traditional money market funds must pass through yield to investors, stablecoin issuers can capture the entire spread between Treasury rates and the zero interest they pay to holders. This helps explain the premium valuation Circle received in its IPO, despite Felix's own skepticism about the price.

However, the sustainability of this business model remains uncertain. Felix raised the question of competition from banks: "How does a Circle even compete in that environment?" when Bank of America or other major institutions launch their own stablecoins with instant distribution to millions of existing customers. The answer may lie in Tether's positioning for international markets, where traditional banking infrastructure is less developed and the demand for dollar-denominated savings is acute.

The Macro Backdrop: Fiscal Dominance and Asset Flows

Felix provided essential context for understanding why crypto assets have behaved the way they have in recent years. The combination of high debt-to-GDP levels, consumers and corporations having termed out their debt at low rates, and high interest rates creating income for savers has created a unique dynamic.

"All these boomers are in money market funds," Felix explained. "And as rates go up, they earn more interest income. So this is going into money market funds. This is why you see charts where it's just like money market flows are just like up into the right." When these savers rebalance their portfolios, they tend to move into equities, creating persistent upward pressure on stock prices regardless of traditional valuation metrics.

This framework helps explain why recession predictions have repeatedly failed to materialize despite seemingly compelling indicators. "In 2022, I think 100% of economists were, their consensus was recession and that did not happen," Felix noted. The lesson he draws is to focus on first principal drivers—particularly fiscal deficits—rather than getting caught up in "doomerism."

Big Tech's Crypto Ambitions: Real This Time?

A significant portion of the discussion focused on whether traditional tech and finance companies' interest in crypto represents a genuine paradigm shift or merely the latest iteration of hollow corporate marketing. The panelists expressed cautious optimism that this time may be different.

Danny pointed to the revenue potential that attracts these companies: "Pump fund is annualizing at 500 million plus a year right now. Hyperliquid is doing hundreds of millions to maybe upwards of a billion a year just from really a lot of trading activity." For companies like Robinhood, which already serve customers with similar trading interests, the opportunity to capture some of this revenue is compelling.

The willingness of crypto traders to pay premium fees makes the business case even stronger. "The consumers in this market are willing to pay one, two, three percent on top of a trade just to get it through, just to slam the bid button," Danny observed. This contrasts sharply with traditional equity markets where fee compression has been the dominant trend for decades.

The Threat to Decentralized Protocols

The entry of well-resourced traditional players into crypto markets raises existential questions for many existing protocols. Boccaccio expressed concern about the competitive dynamics: "I think if I'm a DeFi developer, I'm kind of nervous. I mean, they haven't figured out like the UX, we can't compete right now, at least. So I'd be nervous."

The threat is particularly acute because traditional tech companies possess distribution advantages that crypto-native projects simply cannot match. A product launch by Bank of America or Robinhood reaches millions of users instantly, while crypto protocols must spend years and significant resources building user bases from scratch.

However, Danny offered a more nuanced view, suggesting that the outcome depends on what "failure" means for different stakeholders. If traditional companies can create products that are "a little bit more efficient or are convenient for customers because they can settle transactions 24/7 and there's no latency there," this benefits users even if it displaces some crypto-native protocols.

The Evolution of Crypto's Ethos

The panelists noted a significant shift in the philosophical orientation of the crypto industry. "We've clearly seen a shift away from, it used to be about decentralization, privacy, now it's more about settlement," Boccaccio observed. This pragmatic turn has implications for which projects and business models will succeed going forward.

Danny identified an emerging trend toward hybrid models: "I'm seeing more CeFi, DeFi, blended products where realizing that having some centralized components, but other cases where some trustlessness to the product provides a better experience to the customer." This suggests that the ideological purity of fully decentralized systems may give way to more practical considerations about what actually serves user needs.

Felix offered a historical perspective on this evolution, cautioning crypto developers to study financial history more carefully: "There's a really good reason to have brokerage separate from exchanges, for example. There's these walls in traditional finance and they're there because we've gone through the motions in history of seeing what happens when it cross pollinates."

Predictions Markets: A Surprising Success Story

One area where the panelists acknowledged missing the mark was prediction markets. Danny and Boccaccio discussed their earlier skepticism: "We really missed as a podcast on prediction markets. We thought the election was the forever top." Instead, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have continued to gain traction, with both companies recently announcing significant funding raises.

The persistence of prediction market activity beyond the 2024 election surprised many observers who expected the category to fade. Activity around geopolitical events, elections, and sports betting has continued to drive growth, suggesting that prediction markets may have found genuine product-market fit rather than representing a temporary phenomenon.

The Memecoin Endurance

Another area where conventional wisdom proved incorrect was memecoins. Danny noted that "everyone was saying meme coins are this ephemeral thing that are doomed to die forever and the pump fund is—they're still around." Indeed, Pump.fun continues to drive more activity and commands higher valuations than it did a year ago.

This persistence challenges the narrative that memecoins represent purely speculative froth with no lasting market presence. While questions remain about the long-term sustainability of memecoin trading, the category has demonstrated more staying power than many predicted.

Bitcoin L2 Development: Cautious Optimism Tempered

Pete Rizzo acknowledged being "a bit over-optimistic on the Bitcoin L2 movements and just kind of the movement of crypto apps over to Bitcoin." While he maintains long-term conviction that "anything that can and will be built in this industry will likely come back to Bitcoin at some point or otherwise be kind of co-opted by a centralized service," the timeline for this development has been slower than anticipated.

The challenge lies in Bitcoin's unique technical and cultural constraints, which make porting crypto applications more difficult than building on newer chains designed with programmability in mind. However, upcoming deployments may accelerate this trend, and the fundamental thesis remains intact even if execution has lagged expectations.

AI Agents: A Narrative That Fizzled

One of the most significant misses acknowledged by the panel was the AI agent narrative. Jack admitted, "I thought that AI agents were going to be something and they've turned out to really be nothing. It seems like so far that that whole trend really just came and went very quickly."

This represents a cautionary tale about the crypto industry's tendency to quickly adopt new narratives without sufficient fundamental backing. While the intersection of AI and crypto remains an area of interest for many developers and investors, the specific agent-based models that captured attention in late 2024 and early 2025 have largely failed to deliver on their promise.

The Recession That Never Comes

Felix offered extended reflection on the repeated failure of recession predictions: "In the last four years, every six months, it's people screaming about imminent recession." Most recently, tariff-related concerns in April 2025 seemed to portend economic weakness, but the unwinding of tariff impacts and persistent fiscal stimulus have kept growth elevated.

The lesson Felix draws is to maintain focus on structural drivers rather than getting caught up in cyclical narratives. "In this regime that we're in now, growth is at like 3.5% real GDP. That is absurdly—that is above trend." While slowdowns remain possible, the fiscal backdrop continues to provide support that has repeatedly confounded bearish predictions.

Financial Innovation and Historical Patterns

A recurring theme throughout the discussion was the tension between innovation and the recreation of historical financial structures. Felix urged crypto builders to study financial history more carefully, citing his colleague Austin Campbell's observation that "I've never seen anything in crypto that I've already seen a French quant blow up in trad fi before."

This applies to market structure considerations as well as monetary policy debates. Felix noted that "there was some very terrible depressions when we were on a gold standard," suggesting that Bitcoin maximalist arguments for fixed monetary supply should be evaluated in light of historical experience with deflationary currencies.

The Solana Opportunity

While the panel featured voices from across the crypto ecosystem, the discussion highlighted opportunities that align well with Solana's positioning. The emphasis on high-volume, low-fee transactions as a potential value accrual mechanism echoes the Solana network's design philosophy. Daniel Smith's vision of "low transaction fees per transaction, but billions of transactions" as the path to value creation represents exactly the thesis Solana has pursued.

The maturation of DeFi toward protocols with sustainable business models also bodes well for Solana's ecosystem, which hosts several of the protocols mentioned favorably during the discussion. As the market increasingly rewards real revenue generation and user activity over speculative token economics, chains that can support high-throughput applications with low costs stand to benefit.

Looking Forward: Themes to Watch

The panelists identified several themes likely to drive crypto markets in the coming months. The proliferation of treasury acquisition vehicles across global markets represents an early-stage trend with significant room to grow. Stablecoin legislation, particularly the Genius Act, will shape the competitive dynamics of the stablecoin market and potentially create new demand for Treasury securities.

The entry of traditional tech and finance companies into crypto markets will continue to pressure existing protocols while potentially bringing new users and capital into the ecosystem. Whether this represents an existential threat or growth opportunity for crypto-native projects remains to be determined.

Finally, the search for sustainable value accrual mechanisms will continue to dominate discussions about token economics and protocol design. As the "free lunch" era definitively ends, projects that can demonstrate genuine utility and revenue generation will be rewarded, while those relying primarily on speculative interest may struggle.

The Content Golden Age

One perhaps overlooked observation from the panel was Jack's assertion that "these past six months" may come to be seen as "a golden age" for crypto content creators. The proliferation of novel trends—treasury vehicles, stablecoin legislation, traditional company adoption—has created abundant material for analysis and discussion.

While some of these narratives will inevitably become tiresome as copycats proliferate, the current moment offers genuine novelty. "A lot of times in crypto, something will work and there's like 100 copycats of it until you're bored to death about talking about it," Jack noted. But right now, there remains sufficient innovation and genuine news to keep content creation rewarding.

Conclusion

The Permissionless IV panel offered a comprehensive overview of the major themes shaping crypto markets in mid-2025. From the explosion of Bitcoin treasury companies to the impending tsunami of stablecoin regulation, from the threats and opportunities presented by big tech's crypto ambitions to the ongoing search for sustainable value accrual in decentralized systems, the discussion covered the topics that will define the next phase of crypto market development.

What emerged most clearly was a sense that the crypto industry has entered a new phase of maturation, one in which speculative excess is being replaced by focus on real business models and genuine utility. This transition creates both challenges and opportunities, but the panelists expressed cautious optimism about the long-term trajectory even as they acknowledged the difficulty of predicting specific outcomes.

For builders, investors, and observers in the Solana ecosystem and beyond, the insights from Permissionless IV provide valuable context for navigating the months ahead. The free lunch may be over, but the opportunities for those who can identify and execute on genuine value creation remain substantial.

Facts + Figures

• Metaplanet has become the best-performing stock in Japan due to its Bitcoin treasury strategy, benefiting from tax arbitrage where self-custody Bitcoin sales are taxed at approximately 50% versus 10% for stock gains

• Pump.fun is annualizing at over $500 million in revenue per year from trading activity

• Hyperliquid is generating hundreds of millions to potentially upward of $1 billion annually from trading fees

• The United States is currently running a 7% of GDP fiscal deficit, with potential acceleration to 8% if the "big, beautiful bill" passes

• Canada has maintained only a 2% of GDP fiscal deficit for many years, contrasting with assumptions about other developed nations' spending

• Current US real GDP growth stands at approximately 3.5%, described as above trend levels

• 100% of economists in 2022 predicted recession, which did not materialize

• NATO members discussed increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP, which would accelerate fiscal deficits globally

• Stablecoin issuers like Circle operate with 100% net interest margin since they are not required to pass through yield to holders

• In 2022, consensus recession predictions failed to materialize despite overwhelming economist agreement

• Polymarket and Kalshi both recently announced significant funding raises despite earlier predictions that prediction markets would peak after the 2024 election

• Crypto traders are willing to pay 1-3% fees on top of trades to execute quickly, creating attractive economics for platforms

• The Genius Act stablecoin legislation would restrict interest payments to stablecoin holders, preserving the business model advantage for issuers

• Japan lacks weekend ETF trading, creating additional arbitrage opportunities for companies like Metaplanet

• The panel identified DeFi protocols like Aave, Syrup, and Maple as examples of sustainable business models in crypto

• Stripe acquired Bridge and Outprivy, signaling traditional tech company interest in crypto infrastructure

• Circle's IPO has created expectations for additional crypto company public offerings and potentially SPAC vehicles

• Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy pioneered the convertible debt approach to Bitcoin acquisition that has spawned numerous imitators

Questions Answered

What are Bitcoin treasury acquisition companies and why are they significant?

Bitcoin treasury acquisition companies are publicly traded entities that use traditional equity and debt markets to accumulate Bitcoin as their primary corporate asset. They have become significant because they provide traditional investors with Bitcoin exposure through familiar financial instruments while benefiting from distribution through established exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ. The model pioneered by MicroStrategy has spawned dozens of imitators globally, with panelists predicting the trend will grow "a hundred times larger" as entrepreneurs exploit market inefficiencies in different jurisdictions. Companies like Metaplanet in Japan have become top performers by taking advantage of tax arbitrage between direct Bitcoin ownership and equity holdings.

Why has the "free lunch" era ended in crypto markets?

The era of easy returns has ended due to several factors including market maturation, increased competition, and the unwinding of unique monetary conditions from previous cycles. Boccaccio noted that the previous strategy of buying top DEX tokens and staking native tokens on new Layer 1s no longer generates reliable returns. Felix suggested that much of the previous cycle's returns were actually driven by government stimulus checks being deployed by young investors rather than sustainable crypto market dynamics. The market is now rewarding protocols with genuine revenue generation and sustainable business models rather than purely speculative plays.

How does stablecoin legislation relate to US fiscal policy?

Stablecoin legislation like the Genius Act serves a dual purpose of regulating the crypto industry while creating new demand for Treasury securities. With the US running a 7% of GDP fiscal deficit and facing questions about who will buy government debt, stablecoins backed by Treasury bills represent a potential new source of demand. This alignment of interests explains the strong push for stablecoin regulation, as it could unlock significant Treasury purchases from stablecoin issuers. The legislation would also restrict stablecoin issuers from passing interest through to holders, preserving their business model while ensuring funds flow into government securities.

Why is Circle's business model considered "absurd" by the panelists?

Circle's business model is described as absurd because it operates essentially as a money market fund that captures 100% of the net interest margin. Traditional money market funds must pass through yield to investors, but stablecoin issuers are not required to share interest income with holders—a restriction that would be codified if the Genius Act passes. This creates an extraordinarily profitable structure where Circle owns Treasury bills earning government interest rates while paying zero to USDC holders. However, panelists questioned the sustainability of this model given potential competition from banks launching their own stablecoins with massive existing customer bases.

Is big tech's entry into crypto real this time?

The panelists expressed cautious optimism that traditional tech and finance companies' crypto interest represents genuine strategic commitment rather than marketing exercises. Evidence includes Stripe's acquisition of Bridge, Robinhood's expanded crypto offerings, and significant revenue opportunities in crypto trading. Danny noted that platforms like Pump.fun and Hyperliquid generate hundreds of millions to over a billion in annual revenue, creating compelling business cases for companies like Robinhood that serve similar customer demographics. The willingness of crypto traders to pay 1-3% fees creates attractive unit economics that traditional platforms can potentially capture.

Where does value accrue on blockchain networks?

This question remains unresolved according to the panelists, who acknowledged that "nobody really knows how to value an L1 very, very well." The debate around REV (real economic value) has persisted for over a year precisely because there's no consensus on the right framework. Challenges include stablecoins potentially running on bank-owned infrastructure, reducing need for public blockchains, and applications increasingly building their own chains. The Solana approach of generating value through high transaction volumes at low fees represents one thesis, but whether this model will successfully capture value remains uncertain as competition from traditional institutions intensifies.

What were the biggest prediction misses from crypto commentators?

Several significant misses were acknowledged: AI agents were expected to become a major trend but "turned out to really be nothing" according to Jack; prediction markets were expected to peak after the 2024 election but have continued growing with Polymarket and Kalshi raising significant funding; memecoins were expected to be ephemeral but Pump.fun continues to thrive with higher valuations than a year ago; Bitcoin L2 development has progressed more slowly than Pete Rizzo anticipated; and recession predictions have repeatedly failed to materialize despite seeming compelling at various points, including as recently as April 2025.

How should crypto builders approach financial history?

Felix emphasized that crypto developers need to study financial history more carefully, citing Austin Campbell's observation that nothing in crypto is truly novel—it's typically a recreation of something "a French quant blew up in trad fi before." This includes understanding why traditional finance maintains separations between brokerages and exchanges, the historical consequences of gold standard deflationary economics, and the cycles of booms and busts that have characterized financial markets throughout history. The crypto industry's tendency to repeat historical mistakes in digital formats suggests inadequate attention to lessons that could prevent predictable failures.